2nd anniversary of the Global Political Agreement in Zimbabwe: analysis
September 15th 2010 marked the second anniversary of Zimbabwe's Global Political Agreement (GPA), negotiated as a political compromise in the aftermath of the violence and contested elections of March-June 2008. Are there reasons for the proud parents - the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which brokered the agreement - and family members in the Government of National Unity (GNU) - President Mugabe of ZANU-PF, Prime Minister Tsvangirai of MDC-T and Deputy Prime Minister Mutambara of MDC-M - to celebrate?
A tale of mixed fortunes
Every birthday is an
opportunity to take stock and reflect on what has been and what is yet to be
achieved. The signing of the GPA had ushered in a period of optimism in
Zimbabwe, leading many to believe that
the country would transcend from a past of political polarisation and economic
distress into new democratic dispensation.
Two years down the line, the GPA's scorecard shows a tale
of mixed fortunes. With the three political parties of the GNU still not fully
agreeing on the implementation of the GPA, progress has been slow and painful.
Nevertheless, it is commonly acknowledged that under the GNU Zimbabwe has made
discernible headway, namely in the economic sector, as proven by the increased
stability of the economy in the past two years. Inflation has been markedly
curbed, from quintillion to single digit levels, and food is back on the
shelves.
Also, schools and universities have re-opened
as teachers and lecturers have responded to the boost of confidence that the
new political constellation promised. So has been the case for hospitals, with
doctors and nurses resuming work, although conditions remain tough considering
the limited access to medicine and supplies.
Over the past two years, there has been a clear sense of hope
that the country formerly known as the 'breadbasket of Africa' may be on the
firm path to recovery. Even some of the government ministries have shown new
impetus as some of the new civil servants introduced a fresh focus.
A challenge worth taking up
The GPA has observed positive
macroeconomic repercussions, and political ones too, albeit to a lesser extent.
This has without any doubt contributed to increased overall stability and
brought the agreement closer to its original objective of establishing a
conducive environment for democratic elections.
However, the consolidation of
long-term stability cannot be achieved through sole economic and technical
measures. In order for those piecemeal gains to last and restore confidence,
the political reforms envisaged in the GPA are needed, including constitutional
and legal reforms as well as justice and security sector reforms.
The current political stalemate
under the agreement shows this, having already taken its toll on the economy
this year: The first quarter of the year has seen some of the earlier gains of
the GNU starting to erode, with the government revising its initial economic
growth for 2010 downwards.
Zuma needs to walk the talk
For the GPA to be fully implemented, the failure of
leadership at the global level has to be addressed. As such, the gradual progress observed on the
introduction of reforms and the Constitutional reform process need to be
supported by the regional engagement of the SADC, guarantor of the GPA,
and the international community with renewed vigour. And, considering Zimbabwe's and South Africa's common
history and the fact that the rainbow nation spearheaded the negotiations
leading to the GPA, South African president Jacob Zuma
has a key role to play in pressing all involved parties to see the transition
through to a successful conclusion.
To be sure, at the end of the EU-South Africa summit
which President Zuma attended in Brussels on September 28, it was recognized
that "the complementary efforts of South Africa and the EU aimed at promoting
and supporting the implementation of the [GPA] (...) should be strengthened".
But such words must now be translated into action; in
particular, political and financial support must be upheld both for the
implementation of all phases of the Constitutional reform process and the
preparation of future elections that can be considered free and fair.
A new Constitution high on the agenda for a better Zimbabwe
A conducive environment for such elections involves
above all the completion of the ongoing Constitutional reform process. For
Zimbabwe to fully cross over from the reality of crisis, institutional changes
oriented towards democracy are needed, as well as serious investment in a new
constitution that genuinely reflects the views of the people, in support of
national healing and reconciliation.
Drawing on its experience and its consequent
expertise, EPD is a firm supporter and advocate of this view. EPD also believes
that, while donor assistance alone cannot resolve
Zimbabwe's fragility, the strengthening of institutions and civil society
organizations, which can lay the groundwork for democratic accountability, is
the first and most important step.
Among EPD's latest initiatives, a Zimbabwean-driven
civic education and information campaign could serve as an example for ensuring
that all Zimbabwean voices are heard in the consultative process. Within the
framework of this EU-funded project, the implementing partners have also been playing a key role in strengthening
existing channels of communication between civil society and the drivers of the
official Constitutional reform process - notably the COPAC.
In the coming months, EPD will continue following the
process and actively contributing towards setting the right conditions for the
timely achievement of the next steps. Key among them are the effective drafting
of a new Constitution and its approval by the Parliament as well as the
referendum on the new document, likely to be scheduled for mid- next year.
Aware of the fact that Zimbabwe's transition to democracy is more of a process
than an event, EPD will also work alongside partners to monitor the
post-referendum and the elections period to support the birth of a new
Zimbabwe.
On September 14, EPD
co-organized debate meetings in Brussels, in cooperation with the Zimbabwe
Europe Network (ZEN). A festive luncheon seminar and a round table meeting in
the European Parliament allowed for MEPs, representatives of the European
Commission and the EU Presidency, as well as other European NGOs to gain
first-hand knowledge from the experience of Zimbabwean civil society leaders.
For more information on the
work of EPD and its eight local partners, who have over the past seven months
been actively supporting and implementing a number of Zimbabwean-driven civic
education and information activities, click here.