Constitutional Referendum in Moldova : What to expect now?
Moldova's
constitutional referendum, held on September 5, has failed due to lacking a
quorum of 33,33%, with only 30,29% of voter turnout. As a consequence of the non
valid referendum, the Moldovan Parliament is about to be dissolved and snap
parliamentary elections should take place most likely in November 2010.
The result of
the constitutional referendum has exposed the limits of constitutional reform
as a mechanism to overcome a political deadlock. Indeed, the failure of the
constitutional referendum in Moldova proves that in a functioning democracy
there is not such a thing as partisan constitution-making (never mind how good
the proposal might be).
It is certain
that only 30,29% of voter turnout represents a serious blow to the whole
political class in Moldova and is a clear expression of a strong stream of
disaffection from a political system that is not able to come together in
matters of the utmost importance for the future of the country.
So, what to expect now?
·
if some doubt the Communist
Party of the Republic of Moldova's (PCRM) potential for a major comeback on the
Moldovan political scene, it is safe enough to affirm that, in the near future,
the PCRM will keep playing a key role in
the country's politics. It could still use its supposedly comfortable
parliamentary representation to hinder the work of Moldova's democratic
institutions.
·
as the lack of confidence between the government and the opposition has
been continuously increasing during the last few months, one can hardly see the
Alliance for European Integration (AEI) parties actively cooperating and
positively participating to debates together with a PCRM government.
·
More than the specific issue of
the presidential elections, which will have to be tackled after November
elections, the key challenge remains the
democratic transformation of Moldova.
·
Indeed, if the necessary
democratic reform agenda is to be implemented, Moldovan political leaders will
have to confront the serious crisis of
legitimacy and reflect on the deeper lessons that can be learned from the
last 18 months of political deadlock.
What could be done?
As the balance
of power between the governing AEI parties and the opposition PCRM seems to
remain equilibrated, the PCRM still keeping its core electorate around 30%, the
risks for the political stalemate to continue are real and, if confirmed, can
only be harmful for Moldova's further democratic development and modernization.
Restoration of the rule of law, government
decentralization or the construction of an effective judicial system cannot be
constructed upon continuous partisan confrontation and growing political
polarization. These can only be avoided through a
political dialogue, government and opposition managing to establish a basic
common ground that enshrine the legitimate aspirations of Moldovan citizens to
a more peaceful and prosperous life.
Obviously, it is
easier said than done. Establishing the grounds for high politics between two
parties with the recent history of confrontation such as the PCRM and the AEI
have is a very difficult task. Yet, the combination of a sound domestic agenda
and political commitment with the support of the international community in
this process could help to facilitate a political transition that today seems
to be heading towards a permanent stalemate.
If the new
government and the opposition are to find a way to cooperate it is important to
answer the following questions:
·
which issues could serve as a
means of finding common ground between government and opposition and fostering
a constructive dialogue between both parties?
·
How could the EU and the
broader international community help facilitating this challenging process?
·
What immediate actions should
be put into place to stimulate the Moldovan political debate and to avoid the
threat of a permanent stalemate?
EPD
is committed to a successful democratic transition in Moldova. It will continue
working together with its partners and the EU in order to generate the
conditions for substantive political dialogue, mobilizing its own capacity and
international expertise in a way that helps to tackle some of the questions
currently lingering over Moldovan democratization process.