Burma: the preparations of the election 2010
The EPD has been supporting a project of Foreign Affairs Training done by organization Education Initiative on Thai-Burma border. During a nine months course the Burmese students learn about human rights and democracy but also they are taught presentation skills in these fields including writing articles on certain issues. One of the students has prepared an article about the upcoming elections in Burma which we would like to share with you.
The preparation for the coming election in Burma is a risky and dangerous period.
Since the last election was organized twenty years ago, the military regime has not handed over power despite the landslide victory of the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy. Today, we can say that there are three main political actors in Burma, the military regime, the democracy movement, and the ethnic opposition. However, there is no tripartite dialogue for the 2010 election, which is the last step to establish the junta as a legitimate government. I would like to explain the preparation of this election from the perspective of these three political actors, and how the common people experience it.
The electoral law was finally adopted on the 8th of March but the regime is still waiting to announce the date when the election will be hold. They have their own people in every sectors of the society which is giving them a strong support during the campaign period. For example, the main civilian organizations - Union Solidarity and Development Organization, the Myanmar Maternal and Child Welfare Association, or women associations are supposed to represent the civil society, but they are actually totally loyal to the regime. These groups are expected to form parties. Of course their leaders are from the military. The regime also controls local authorities: village headmen who are not necessarily from the military will anyhow convey orders to the villagers. Religion is also a way to reinforce the regime's power over the people with monks directly coming from the military ranks. Lastly, police and soldiers are everywhere and represent a constant fear for the people. They have money and power. Everything is in their hands.
The democracy movement is mainly represented by the National League for Democracy which won 80% of the Parliament in the 1990 election but was never allowed to form a government. Activists and politicians can predict the outcome of the 2010 election: the military regime will win anyhow. The National League for Democracy has recently pulled out of the election because the regime refuses to give in to two essential demands for the election to be free and fair: to release the political prisoners including Aung San Suu Kyi and amend the 2008 constitution, which gives the military 25% of the seats in Parliament and requires a 75% majority to be amended.
Since Burma became independent in 1948, ethnic minorities have taken up arms to ask for autonomy within the Union and the civil war is still going on until now. Today, there are many ethnic armed groups; some have signed a ceasefire but some are still fighting. The regime wants these groups to show their support for the election by becoming border guard forces under the regime's authority. Until now, we can see three different responses among the armed groups.
Firstly, some small cease-fire groups have accepted that condition and will form political parties.
Secondly, powerful ceasefire groups have still not complied with the regime's order. The Kachin Independent Organization is postponing the deadline set by the regime to change its troupes into border guard forces. The strongest ceasefire group (United Wa State Army), will oppose that condition unless the regime agrees with their demand of self determination. Because of tensions, the election could be postponed with the regime stating that this group is an obstacle for the election.
Lastly, some non-ceasefire groups proposed dialogue to the regime. They said they have been fighting each other for many years but it did not bring any change for Burma. If they can reach an agreement guaranteeing autonomy, they added they would form a political party to participate in the election. However, the regime replied that what the non-ceasefire groups can do is only to surrender. Therefore, the non-ceasefire armed groups will neither participate in the election nor support it.
For armed groups as well as for the democracy movement, federalism appears like the solution to the conflict, but it is not the regime's priority. We can say that the regime wants this election not for the country and the people, but only to secure their grip on power.
What is this election meaning for normal people? Normal people are not educated. They live from hand to mouth. They have been suffering from the mismanagements of the regime for decades. They really want to change the situation and the system of government. However, their main concern is to survive. They do not really know what democracy, constitution and election mean. Most of them have never experienced an election. If they are ordered to vote, they just have to do so. There is nothing to consider when choosing their governor. Many ethnic nationalities fled to Thailand and other countries as well. How can those people go back to heir homeland and vote for their own people or leaders? Normal people need information about the constitution, political parties and the election as well. They do not know how to prepare for an election. If there is no freedom of movement and association, the young activists cannot really play their roles.
Preparation for the election is a duty for the whole community. Everyone has to participate to be successful. If the political parties or democracy movement, the regime and the ethnic armed groups cannot come together for dialogue, the result of such an election can't be true democracy but only legitimating the government without genuine representation of the people. This cannot solve the 60 years old ongoing conflict. The civil war will continue as before. As a result of the election, the regime will forcefully become a legitimate government but it will not be easy for the people who are depressed for more than sixty years to accept it.