Zimbabwe: an unprecedented transition
On my way back to The Netherlands from visits
to Zimbabwe and Zambia, I learned about the tragic car accident of the new Zimbabwean Prime
Minister Morgan
Tsvangirai, which killed his wife and injured him. The accident
happened 88 km south of Harare and was caused by a collision with a truck.
Ironically, it was an USAID hired truck with humanitarian assistance for the suffering Zimbabwean population. Morgan
Tsvangirai and his wife were on their way to a meeting in the birthplace of
Morgan in Buhera, a district in Manicaland province south-east of Harare.
In Zimbabwean political history, car accidents have been used regularly
to get rid of political opponents. No wonder many people immediately feared that
this car accident was not an accident at all but a political assassination
plot by the Mugabe security services against the new Prime Minister.
When Morgan Tsvangirai was sworn in just three weeks ago, the chiefs of the
security and defense forces bluntly boycotted the ceremony.
Yet, car accidents do happen at the notoriously dangerous roads in
Zimbabwe and the accident could be a most unfortunate coincidence so early in
the much contested power sharing arrangement between ZANU(PF) and
the two MDC parties. At the time of writing of this blog entry, it is simply
too early to know what the precise circumstances of the accident have been,
since there are no witness accounts available.
An agreement without alternative
It is another blow for Morgan Tsvangirai. When I met him earlier this week in
Harare, he was still full of optimism and resolve to make the Global Political Agreement (GPA) between ZANU(PF)
and the two MDC parties, the power sharing agreement, work. It had to work in
the interest of the Zimbabwean people. There was no other alternative. The
country is broke with no more reserves in the Reserve Bank. Hospitals are
empty, pupils are sitting idly at home because schools are closed, people are
starving because there is a lack of food, while cholera is spreading and only
10% of the country's industrial capacity is utilized. Something had to happen to come to the rescue of the
Zimbabwean people.
Tsvangirai's message to the international partners is: don't wait
because you play into the hands of those wishing to see Zimbabwe collapse even
further. In my conversations with him, he mentioned three priorities for
immediate international assistance. All three, he said, need assistance now:
1. Humanitarian assistance
2. Restart the Zimbabwe economy
3. Assistance the return to democracy in Zimbabwe.
In subsequent meetings with leaders of the civil society organizations
in Zimbabwe, it was expressed that the GPA should be utilized by engaging the
new government constructively. A key provision is the agreed roadmap towards a
fully new Zimbabwean constitution within 24 months, and the establishment of an
independent electoral commission.
Constitutional Reform
The new Minister for Constitutional Reform expressed his willingness to
work closely with civil and political society to prepare for this new
constitution. If indeed he will pursue this line, and NIMD will provide support
for this approach, it may become an important process for national healing and
reconciliation while creating the necessary conditions for future free and fair
elections.
Another important provision of the GPA is the Joint Monitoring
Commission, JOMIC. The three parties to the agreement each have delegated five
members to this commission to monitor the implementation under SADC guidance.
The three delegation leaders to JOMIC chair the commission alternately for one
month each. JOMIC is an important instrument to resolve the many conflicts
arising from the GPA and to document its implementation. It is of great
strategic importance that the documentation of what works and what does not is
done accurately since SADC will review the GPA within 6 months from the day
inauguration of the new government mid February 2009. This review will open the
possibility for corrections of faults in the GPA, most importantly the
underrepresentation of MDC parties in the defense and security sector of
government.
Diliemma for International Community
The international community is faced with a difficult dilemma. It is familiar
with two transition models in the wake of a conflict or crisis
situation. Either the international community steps in to manage the
transition itself, such as in Kosovo or East Timor, or a new government takes
responsibility for the implementation of a transition agenda with assistance of
the international community. The Zimbabwe situation is different and requires a
new approach. The new government includes one side that is seriously committed
to the necessary changes and another defending the status quo. Because the
international community can only deal with governments that speak in one voice,
what to do in this situation?
It would be a missed opportunity for the Zimbabwean people if the
international community were to be so inflexible as to not to respond
immediately to the urgent priorities as outlined by Morgan Tsvangirai. The
current smart sanctions target those government officials responsible for the
abuse of state power in Zimbabwe. Smart support should now be forthcoming for
the government officials responsible for providing the essential services, such
as food, health and education for the suffering Zimbabweans. It requires
creativity, flexibility and out-of-the-box thinking on the part of
international donors. In meetings with the international donor community in
Harare, NIMD has actively pursued this option.
NIMD Priorities
Priorities for NIMD will be to support the three political parties in
the joint monitoring committee of the GPA, to support the constitution-making
process in ways that enhance reconciliation, to contribute to the preparation
of the conditions for future free and fair elections, and to defend those
working for democracy and human rights in Zimbabwe.
Roel von Meijenfeldt on Monday 09 March 2009 at
3:38 pm
Please look also at the blog of Mr. von Meijenfeldt on the NIMD blogs.