Night of Dictatorship debate on the Arab Spring Revolutions (14 Sept 2011)
During the Night of Dictatorship, special attention was paid to the Arab Spring revolutions that are providing such clear examples of the transition from authoritarian to democratic regimes. To shed light on the diverse popular revolts throughout the Arab-speaking world, a number of high-level politicians and experts were invited to discuss the recent uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco and Syria
Tunisia
The debate was kicked off by a powerful presentation by Kemal Jendoubi, Chairman of the Tunisian National Election Committee, who recently returned to his motherland after spending seventeen years in exile in France. Following a brief outline of Tunisia's political history, Mr. Jendoubi expressed general optimism about the country's upcoming elections, which he said would be its "first fair and pluralist elections" in history. In particular, he showed excitement over the overwhelming popular interest in the elections, with over 110 political parties and more than 10.000 candidates competing for only 217 electable posts. Mr. Jandoubi was however careful to stress that the process holds some challenges as well. Since the whole electoral process is new to Tunisia, the national election committee had to establish a voter's list from scratch within a very short timeframe. Besides this and other technical challenges, there is also a need for a wide awareness raising campaign to make people conscious of the importance of voting and the electoral process. To make the upcoming elections as inclusive as possible, the Tunisian diaspora will be actively involved, with Tunisians living abroad being able to vote and to run for office.
Egypt
Whereas Tunisia's transition to democracy was discussed with cautious optimism, the political revolt in Egypt was painted in a more sober light by Nadine Abdalla, researcher at the Arab Forum for Alternatives and the second speaker of the evening. Just like in Tunisia, the revolution in Egypt was carried by a broad popular movement. In contrast to demonstrations of previous years, which were mainly carried out by workers and which failed to bring about significant political changes, the spring revolution was ultimately successful because it managed to engage citizens from all layers of society, including doctors, teachers and the broader intelligentsia. Although a first step has been taken in Egypt's transition to democracy, Mrs. Abdalla pointed out that the process is still facing significant challenges. In the first place, she argued that the administration of the transition process seems to lack coherence, with no clear timeframe, roadmap or agenda articulated by the country's leadership. Moreover, there is a lack of profound reform, with the ancient regime still in place, supported by the same media, police and security forces. Thirdly, Mrs. Abdalla stressed that the rift between Islamist and secularist forces continues to tear the country apart. As a result of these obstacles, she stated, there is a risk that the democratisation process will be popularly associated with instability, which would decrease the chances for free and fair elections.
Morocco
Sietske de Boer, third speaker and reporter for the Dutch Radio 1 and Radio Netherlands Worldwide, concluded that compared to the developments in Egypt, the political transformation in Morocco remains much more slow-paced and inconclusive. Although the regime of King Mohamed VI has pledged to implement democratic reforms to appease the population, Mrs de Boer argued that it has failed so far to produce credible reforms. As an example, she mentioned a set of recently proposed constitutional reforms put forward by the regime. The reforms lacked substance to such a degree that when they were put up for a referendum on 1 July of this year, the Moroccan population mostly "voted with its feet", many staying at home instead of voting. Despite these democratic shortcomings and well-known cases of human rights violations, there is no widespread popular revolt in Morocco, and large subsections of the population seem rather disinterested in the political process. Although many young people are actively campaigning for democratic reforms, it seems that they are still dominated by the older, more traditional and religious generations that prefer the status quo. The future of the Moroccan political system is therefore hard to predict.
Syria
Also in Syria, the growing popular unrest has not led to the demise of the political regime. Mrs Alaa Abdulfatah, representative of the Syrian community in the Netherlands, emphasised that although the population's resistance towards the country's political elite seems to increase from day to day, the fate of the Syrian revolution is far from certain. The bottom-up revolution, which was started by youngsters in March of this year, has not yet produced the same world-changing results as in neighbouring countries. She and other representatives from the Syrian community in the Netherlands continue however providing support to their peers in Syria and have vowed to travel to Damascus as soon as the revolution achieves its ultimate aim of overthrowing the current regime.
Debate
While reflecting upon similarities and differences between the Arab Spring revolutions, the speakers noted that the success of the popular uprisings will not only depend on the will of the population, but will also be influenced by the international context. Possibly, some of the experts argued, Tunisia's chances for a successful democratic transformation are higher than Egypt's because of its more manageable size and the lack of destabilising influences of the world's biggest powers. To ensure better perspectives for the Arab Spring political transitions, several presenters called for greater support from the EU, which has provided ample moral support so far, but could still provide more material assistance. In the end, the speakers agreed on one thing: that one should stay optimistic and supportive of the reforms, while managing the expectations of national and international audiences, who should be kept well informed about the challenging road ahead.